Raccoon rabies surges in Québec as climate change could push reservoirs farther north

Québec has confirmed 313 cases of the raccoon rabies variant since January 1, 2026, marking a major resurgence of a disease that had largely disappeared from the province. Against this rapidly evolving epidemiological background, a new modelling study suggests that climate change could progressively expand suitable habitat for raccoons and striped skunks farther north, potentially forcing rabies surveillance and vaccination programmes to cover much larger areas.

The current outbreak represents a sharp change from the previous decade. After control operations following the 2006–2009 epidemic, when 104 wildlife cases were confirmed, Québec recorded only one isolated case in 2015. Raccoon rabies returned at Saint-Armand in December 2024, followed by a second focus around Stanstead in August 2025. A third focus emerged in June 2026 around Saint-Anicet, in western Montérégie, and authorities report substantial progression since then, particularly across Montérégie.

More than 300 cases in 2026

As of late October, Québec reports 313 laboratory-confirmed cases of the raccoon rabies variant in 2026. Most detections involve raccoons, but the variant has also been confirmed in striped skunks, cats and a red fox, demonstrating transmission beyond its principal reservoir host. Cases are concentrated in Montérégie and Estrie, with detections also reaching Centre-du-Québec. Municipalities affected during 2026 include Saint-Anicet, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Saint-Hyacinthe, Coaticook, Bromont, Magog, Farnham and several communities close to the US border.

Québec authorities link the re-emergence to an epidemic that has been progressing northward from Vermont since 2022, highlighting the importance of coordinated control on both sides of the Canada–US border.

Climate change could redraw the reservoir map

A new study by researchers at Université de Montréal examines a longer-term question: how might climate change alter the geographical distribution of the two main terrestrial reservoirs of raccoon rabies, the raccoon (Procyon lotor) and striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis)?

Using species-distribution models and several climate scenarios extending to 2100, the researchers predict northward expansion of suitable habitat for both species, with raccoons generally moving faster and farther than skunks. The models were based on North American wildlife occurrence records and climatic variables and performed well in cross-validation, with Matthews correlation coefficients of 0.765 for raccoons and 0.740 for skunks.

Raccoons could benefit most from stronger warming

The trajectory varies considerably according to greenhouse-gas emissions. Under the low-emission scenario, substantial new suitable habitat appears as early as around 2030, but expansion slows later in the century. Under the highest-emission scenario, the greatest geographical shift occurs around 2070 and extends considerably farther north. The projections also indicate that severe warming increasingly favours raccoons relative to striped skunks at higher latitudes.

Temperature, particularly the maximum temperature of the warmest month and winter conditions, strongly influences raccoon suitability. Skunk distribution appears more dependent on precipitation, wetland availability and winter conditions.

Suitable habitat does not mean rabies spread

The model predicts where raccoons and skunks could live, not where raccoon rabies virus will necessarily circulate. The authors explicitly warn that expansion of suitable habitat does not mean infected animals will automatically colonise those areas. Oral vaccination, surveillance and control of existing outbreaks could still interrupt virus spread even while reservoir populations extend northward.

That nuance is particularly important given the 2026 epidemic: the current increase in cases should not be attributed directly to climate change on the basis of this study.

Surveillance zones may have to move north too

Nevertheless, the combination of the current outbreak and projected reservoir expansion has important implications. Some northern areas that could become increasingly suitable for raccoons and skunks currently have less-developed wildlife rabies surveillance and vaccination infrastructure. If host populations shift, existing geographical control zones may eventually become poorly aligned with the ecological distribution of the reservoirs.

The researchers therefore highlight oral rabies vaccination, intensified monitoring and cross-border coordination as essential tools, especially under higher-emission scenarios.

The models do have limitations. They are driven primarily by climate and do not fully integrate urbanisation, forests, wetlands, food resources or barriers to animal movement, all of which influence whether apparently suitable habitat is actually colonised.

With more than 300 confirmed cases already recorded in Québec in 2026, raccoon rabies is once again an immediate animal-health problem. The climate projections add a longer-term warning: the ecological territory requiring surveillance and vaccination may itself be moving north.