Global Food and Agriculture System: The OECD Envisions Three Possible Futures by 2050

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in a recent report*, examined the “future prospects for global food and agriculture.” This report presents three long-term scenarios for the world in 2050: fragmentation in growth, reliant on fossil fuels, sustainable growth driven by civic engagement, and rapid growth based on international cooperation. Within the framework of these three possible futures, the ability of agricultural markets to address the identified challenges is analyzed in detail. In particular, reconciling the interests of consumers, producers, and the planet represents a critical issue.   The OECD report identifies several major challenges that the global food and agriculture system will face in the coming decades. It will need to feed an ever-growing, increasingly affluent, and demanding population while preserving limited natural resources (land and water) and sensitive ecosystems (biodiversity), as well as increasing agricultural productivity to meet growing demand while mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change, and finally, contributing to the prosperity of rural areas. Addressing all these challenges requires forward-looking decisions—both political and economic. To stimulate constructive discussion and the subsequent implementation of a long-term strategy, the OECD has identified three different visions of the world of tomorrow. The choices made today by policymakers and businesses will determine the extent to which the global food and agriculture system will be affected by future challenges. The proposed scenarios—which are neither projections nor forecasts—offer a tool for understanding the highly uncertain future of food and agriculture. In the “growth based on sovereignty and fossil fuels” scenario, the envisioned world prioritizes the national interests of states or regions that form trade blocs and strives for self-sufficiency, in contrast to a long-term, international geopolitical vision. Economic growth relies on the use of fossil fuels—leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions —and on advances in extraction technologies (shale gas, coal conversion, deepwater oil). It is linked to a low level of engagement by governments and citizens in environmental and social issues. Demand for animal proteins and processed foods is growing significantly , again without taking environmental impact into account. Under pressure from strong population growth, agricultural productivity is high, particularly thanks to the use of intensive farming systems and technology. The “sustainable growth based on citizen concerns” scenario describes a world in which every country takes a more sustainable approach to economic development and consumption, driven by a shift in public attitudes as citizens become increasingly concerned about the environmental and social footprint of food production. International cooperation exists but remains limited, while technologies are primarily aimed at preserving the environment and natural resources. Within the framework of this green growth, social awareness is high, and consumers are moving toward healthier diets—with less meat and more plant-based proteins— produced using environmentally friendly methods, even if it means paying more. Renewable energy sources are expanding, and the sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is helping to slow climate change. In this agroecological scenario, productivity gains in the agricultural system are based on reduced use of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides, resulting in an increasing supply of organic products. The “rapid growth based on globalization” scenario envisions a world where multilateral cooperation in international trade drives economic growth and aims for prosperity. Markets and multinational corporations are the key players in these expanding economies. Governments and citizens place little importance on environmental considerations or biodiversity, while technologies advance thanks to innovation in the fields of human and animal nutrition and energy production (hydrogen fuel cells, biofuels, green chemistry, etc.). A rapidly growing population, rapid urbanization, and the expansion of international trade contribute to the intensification of agriculture and aquaculture, as well as to the standardization of food products around a meat-rich diet . The impact on the climate is significant. The OECD then evaluates these scenarios based on seven different criteria: food safety and nutrition, food safety, the economic sustainability of agriculture, biodiversity and the scarcity of natural resources, greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of agricultural pollution, diets and nutrition, and animal diseases. Risks related to food safety and cross-border animal diseases appear lower in the “green growth” world driven by civic engagement , as animal production is more limited, the use of agricultural inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) is lower, and the food chain is shorter and more local. However, international cooperation on controls and regulations is then necessary. This scenario also appears best suited to improving environmental performance, though it requires farmers and livestock producers to adapt (by adopting more sustainable production methods) in response to changing consumer behavior. It offers the prospect of a significant reduction in global hunger by 2050 , while limiting biodiversity loss and emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. According to the OECD, under all three projected scenarios, agriculture’s share of global gross domestic product and employment is expected to continue declining worldwide. The viability of farms will depend on the structural transformations that are implemented. Ultimately, the future of the food and agricultural system hinges on sustainable productivity growth, which is fueled by innovation, multidisciplinary collaboration among public and private actors, cooperation, and communication.   * Outlook for Global Food and Agriculture, OECD report published on April 6, 2016, http://www.oecd.org/fr/publications/perspectives-d-avenir-pour-l-alimentation-et-l-agriculture-dans-le-monde-9789264253544-fr.htm See also the documentary film *Demain*, directed by Cyril Dion and Mélanie Laurent, released in December 2015 and still in theaters.